You're wrong more often than you think.
A 3-minute calibration test for founders. Ten questions about business you can't look up in your head. Answer each one, say how sure you are, and see how far apart those two things are.
The questions are business facts, not your own decisions. Calibration depends partly on the subject, so take the result as a quick check, not a diagnosis.
What calibration means
If you say you're 80% sure about ten things, about eight of them should turn out true. Most people say 80% and get five or six. The distance between how sure you feel and how often you're right is your calibration gap. It shows up in every forecast you make about your own business, and almost nobody measures it.
The confidence slider runs from 50% to 100%, not from zero. Each question has two answers, so 50% means you're guessing. Anything below that would mean you actually believe the other answer, in which case you'd pick that one instead.
Your result
| How sure you were | Answers | Got right |
|---|
Ten questions is a small sample, and these are general business facts. Your calibration on your own decisions may be better or worse. Treat this as a first reading, not a verdict.
Across your sets
That gap doesn't close when the decisions are about your own business. It just stops being measured.
de.Think is a decision journal that keeps score. You write down the call, your reasoning, and a prediction that can turn out wrong. Ninety days later, it checks. It launches soon.